Making Reads - Big Poker

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Example 1: There’s a 5-way limped pot and you flop top pair poor kicker on a board with many draws. You bet out $6 and are raised to $12 by UTG+1, the possible limit hold’em player from the prior hand. Typically you may opt to fold since the pot is so small at the moment, but he only raised the minimum. Against a lot of players this implies you’re probably beat, but you should at least call to see a turn card. Against this player you might call the raise and bet out about $15 on the turn and fold to another raise. If the turn bet is called then check and possibly fold the river.

This play may seem very weak but there is a very good reason for this, which involves the possibility of the opponent having a draw. You call the raise on the flop because we don’t know if our opponent is on a draw are not, and think there is a decent possibility he is. Folding here while you have the best hand would be a disaster. By betting out the turn, we can get away from the hand if we are raised again as our opponent is representing a made hand, which is almost definitely better than your one pair weak kicker hand. What this also accomplishes is losing the least possible on this hand, given the stakes and your opponent. However if you are correct in that your opponent is a on a drawing hand, there are two good outcomes:

1) You are called, but your opponent didn’t have good pot odds to chase ($15 to win $47). He may think he has good implied pot odds because we will give him a lot of action on the river, but he’s wrong – you’ve pinned him on a draw and will only call a small to moderate sized bet.

2) He will fold, and you win a decent-sized pot. These add up towards the end of the night.

In the event that he calls the turn and then bets the river when checked to, You’ll have to determine whether or not the pot is giving you good odds and if your opponent is prone to bluffing when he misses a draw. You might just call a bet to dissuade opponents from bluffing into you on the river.

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Example 2: You raise preflop with JJ and are called by the weak player who overplayed ATo in the discussed hand. This time he’s in the BB, so you’re in position. The flop comes 9 high and it’s checked to you. You need bet every single time, even if you have missed with AK or AQ. The opponent is only representing weakness so I can imagine the continuation bet on the flop winning the pot enough of the time to be profitable. If your opponent calls I suggest slowing down here without a pair because when facing novice players they are inclined to call down. Even if you have seen this player call the flop and fold the turn, their unpredictable play usually doesn’t warrant firing another bet on the turn. In this case you have an overpair, so with his initial call on the flop we can narrow his holdings down to a weak made hand or a drawing hand. Be very inclined to bet the turn and river here unless a very obvious draw comes out and our opponent bets into you or checkraises. Very few players are capable of a checkraise bluff unless they are tilting. It’s up to you to notice this.

Getting maximum value here is extremely important, because there’s a significant amount of money to be made if we are getting called down by something like top pair on the flop. Getting these types of players’ money before others is critical because they’re basically giving it away. Therefore I suggest betting out even if the turn or river with a queen or king. However if the river is an ace, then strongly consider checking behind or folding to bet because many new players play ace-rag. As stated in the previous example, it may be correct to always pay the player off here so your other more observant opponents don’t try bluffing you in similar situations.

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Example 3: You are in the BB with Qd Jd. A new player makes it $8, there’s a call from the button, and you call. The button is the player who you observed slowplay the set of jacks. Since then you have seen him follow that pattern a few times when showing down at least two pair. Sometimes he has folded the turn though.

The board comes queen high with no draws. You should check here and see how the other players feel about their hands. The new player bets $8 and the button calls. You need to at least call here and re-evaluate on the turn. If a blank comes on the turn and the new player looks confident again and bets with the button raising, you know your hand is no good. You can do this because you know the button isn’t calling or raising the turn with hands you can beat. If the new player checks the turn and the button checks as well, you should lead out on a safe river card because it seems that the new player was just making a continuation bet on the flop or had a marginal hand. A bet on the river may also entice the button to call with a worse hand. He’s unlikely to be slowplaying a hand that beats yours because he would have bet the turn when checked to.

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Using the tells observed in prior hands, you can make reads to extract the most out of marginal situations and find ways to lose the least when you’re beat. In some cases you may find that you let your opponent catch up to you on a later street but in the long run you’re making money. So forget trying to stare your opponent down to figure out what he holds. Just think about past hands to compare the way they were played with the current hand.

Barry.